Behavioral Finance

May 10, 2026

Title 'The Planning Fallacy' with a four-panel color chart labeled Lucky, Disciplined Investor, Confused, and Bias-Trapped (gray, green, light gray, orange).

The Planning Fallacy: Kahneman & Tversky’s 1979 Forecast Bias and Buehler-Griffin-Ross 1994 Discipline of Time-Cost-Risk Estimation

The Planning Fallacy systematically tricks investors into underestimating time, cost, and risk while overestimating benefits. Indian retail data shows the bias is alive and expensive — median expected returns of 18-22% versus actual Nifty 50 TR of 13.4%. The remedy is Reference-Class Forecasting. Titan Biotech FY25 illustrative numbers — Rs.3 cr borrowings (down 81%), 103% CFO/Operating Profit, paced capex over a decade.

May 10, 2026

Hero header with the title 'Reinvestment Rate' and a green subtitle on a dark blue gradient, plus a multicolored donut chart labeled FY25 at the center.

Reinvestment Rate: The Damodaran Formula That Reveals Whether a Company’s Growth Is Self-Sustaining

Damodaran's identity — Expected Operating-Income Growth = Reinvestment Rate × RoIC — is the single most powerful arithmetic discipline a long-term Indian investor can carry. This educational lesson decodes the formula and applies it to Titan Biotech FY25 audited markers as a positive illustration of disciplined capital allocation.

May 9, 2026

Hero with title 'The Affect Heuristic'. A 2x2 matrix: left column gray blocks labeled 'Lucky' (top) and 'Confused' (bottom); right column green 'DISCIPLINED INVESTOR' and orange 'BIAS-TRAPPED'.

The Affect Heuristic: Slovic et al.’s 2002 Cognitive Shortcut Behind India’s ₹1.81 Lakh Crore F&O Loss Numbers

Slovic, Finucane, Peters and MacGregor's 2002 Affect Heuristic — feel first, justify second — explains the silent operating system behind Indian retail flows, F&O losses and festival SIP spikes. A counter-measure checklist, a Graham/Buffett/Munger/Klarman lineage, and a positive corporate case-study using Titan Biotech FY25 audited numbers.

May 9, 2026

Bar chart of Sales-to-Gross-Block Ratio by fiscal year (FY20–FY25); values drop from 28 to 11; FY25 bar is green.

Sales-to-Gross-Block Ratio: The Asset Productivity Test

Learn how to read a company's Sales-to-Gross-Block ratio in 60 seconds — the asset-productivity test that separates capital-light compounders from capital-heavy laggards. Titan Biotech FY25's ~3.76x reading is the positive illustration.